Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.657700 14.496114 16.478106 18.770011 21.343407 24.139721 27.404294
2025-04-06 9.804040 12.259982 15.115628 18.666294 22.946511 27.922598 34.127424
2025-04-13 7.898191 10.471089 13.615533 17.714136 22.885046 29.159127 37.311175
2025-04-20 7.020644 9.791417 13.326186 18.122715 24.411337 32.319231 42.950842
2025-04-27 6.331013 9.229873 13.068754 18.461938 25.769180 35.240854 48.346212
2025-05-04 5.614737 8.535806 12.542297 18.356177 26.476859 37.300350 52.674498
2025-05-11 4.971082 7.862435 11.961248 18.091623 26.899373 38.943710 56.468174
2025-05-18 4.510889 7.401097 11.624922 18.119638 27.693511 41.092906 61.015222
2025-05-25 4.163112 7.068856 11.437477 18.329204 28.731087 43.601768 66.151317
2025-06-01 3.804523 6.680708 11.126108 18.315400 29.416316 45.612869 70.639170
2025-06-08 3.453305 6.267654 10.736851 18.141633 29.830172 47.222035 74.584538
2025-06-15 3.216750 6.019812 10.583708 18.315221 30.767727 49.629779 79.794055
2025-06-22 3.074746 5.925796 10.680162 18.906480 32.411130 53.214022 86.996875
2025-06-29 2.804002 5.580258 10.331818 18.743482 32.838864 54.946805 91.442399
2025-07-06 2.432813 5.014339 9.559340 17.806905 31.936075 54.529193 92.483792
2025-07-13 2.315015 4.906989 9.574136 18.210720 33.265868 57.706792 99.330131
2025-07-20 2.197830 4.788742 9.557983 18.553739 34.502353 60.776104 106.114722
2025-07-27 2.027545 4.549289 9.301101 18.446717 34.951908 62.563447 110.871411
2025-08-03 1.852614 4.282661 8.971471 18.181260 35.101437 63.845098 114.828598
2025-08-10 1.729842 4.111350 8.808481 18.209308 35.765726 66.012065 120.336608
2025-08-17 1.638250 3.996978 8.746229 18.419834 36.763881 68.782530 126.961453
2025-08-24 1.529235 3.833812 8.574173 18.405957 37.344565 70.845295 132.441734
2025-08-31 1.412805 3.642214 8.329277 18.231425 37.611543 72.359434 137.016171